#PEACEFUL MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES UPDATE#

Arab Youth: Negative Views of ISIS: 2015, 42.

Sectarian/Ethnic/Tribal/Regional Divisions, 32.

Ethnic, Sectarian, Tribal, and Regional Differences, 31.

IISS Estimate of Real Change in MENA Military Spending 2016-2017, 30.

Excessively Large National Security Forces, 29.

Comparative Military and Security Spending in 2017, 28.

IISS Estimate of 2017 Global Military Spending, 27.Four of Five Leading Perpetrators are Arab, 25.Four of Ten Leading Countries are Arab, Eight are “Islamic”, 24.Terrorist Attacks in MENA 2001-2016, 22.ODNI Map of Sunni Violent Extremist Operating Areas in 2017, 19.The Growing Global Impact of Islam: 2010-2050, 18.Terrorism and Violent Islamic Extremism, 17.The Impact of War on Development: Iraq, 16.The Impact of War on Development: Syria, 15.Wars with Lasting Stability and Development Impacts, 14.The Cost of Conflict and Violent Extremism, 13.Estimating Stability and Instability, 9.

The “Band of Instability”: Morocco to Iran, 8.

The report is entitled Stability in the MENA Region: The Range of Forces Shaping Stability. This report addresses both the short-term causes of instability and the longer-term trends, and provides updated summary data on each Arab and Middle Eastern state where available.

#PEACEFUL MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES UPDATE#

They provide a clear warning in many cases of the actions that governments must take to reduce the threat posed by given causes, and affect the society of each Arab and MENAĪ summary presentation on the forces shaping stability and instability in the MENA region has evolved significantly since these reports were issued, however, and a summary update has been prepared for the annual conference of the Arab Thought Foundation in Dubai on April 10-12, 2018. There are, however, a wide range of short and longer-term trends that can be analyzed, and many can be at least partially quantified. Report on The Range of Forces Shaping Stability in the MENA Region The origins of the political upheavals and wars that began in 2011are a key case in point. History has also made it all too clear that stability or instability can also change almost instantly because of the actions of a given figure or leader, personal tensions or ability to cooperate, ill-judged actions or interactions between given actors, outside intervention, success or failure in crisis management or warfare, and catalytic events that capture popular attention. There are too many variables involved, and the variables differ so much even between neighboring countries that focusing on one set of variables can at best describe the current situation in a single country – not the situation in the Arab world or MENA region. Taken together, it is clear that there is no simply way to model or predict the level of stability in any given country, much less the region. These reports reveal radical differences between the countries in the region, but highlight the fact that given countries have mix of poor and abusive governance, ethnic and sectarian differences, corruption and self-seeking elites, poor or failed economic development, employment and career problems, and population pressures that challenge national unity and stability, and help lead to violent extremism. Arab experts have documented the level of such pressures in the UN's Arab Development Reports since 2002, and many of the forces involved have consistent trends lines and can be quantified by country. The longer-term pressures are less clear, although a wide range of international organizations like the UN, World Bank, and IMF have warned about the individual forces involved for decades. Tensions between Israel and the Palestinian persist, each side has seen rising internal political barriers to a compromise peace, and the tensions between Israel and Iran and Hezbollah are creating new military threats. All the major causes of violent extremism remain, and there are few prospects that the fight against ISIS will eliminate the extremist threat in even one MENA country. The violence and wars that have resulted from the political upheavals in 2011 will at best leave lasting challenges for unity and development even if the fighting ends. Most of the region has some form of internal conflict, faces rising external threats, or is dealing with violent extremism. The immediate sources of instability are clear. The Short and Long-Term Forces Shaping Stability and Instability It also, however, is the result of a wide variety of long-term pressures growing out of poor governance, corruption, economic failures, demographic pressures and other forces within the civil sector.

This instability is the result of ongoing conflicts and tensions, and a variety of political tensions and divisions. The Middle East has long been one of the most unstable regions in the world, and there are no present prospects for change in the near future.

Peaceful middle eastern countries